A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
